Introduction

The purpose of this "blog" is to assess and track the race to 270 electoral votes in this year's presidential contest. (In fact, Bush only needs a 269-269 tie become president again---see Amendment XII of the Constitution for details---but "race to 270" is somehow catchier than "race to 270 if you're Kerry or probably just 269 if you're Bush.") Although I strongly support Senator Kerry and I loath President Bush, I am trying to be completely unbiased with my predictions. Of course, I reserve the right to criticize Bush (or Kerry) whenever I feel like it.

I am not in the business of predicting the Election Day results several weeks or months in advance; there are enough pundits out there who get paid plenty to do that poorly. Rather, I attempt to answer questions of the form, "If the election were held today..." On Election Day (Tuesday, November 2nd, 2004), I will predict the results. So bear in mind that if I say "There is a 68% chance that Kerry will win," I really mean "If the election were held today, Kerry would have a 68% chance of winning," and if I say "Minnesota is a safe state for Kerry," I really mean "If the election were held today, Kerry would have at least an 80% chance of winning Minnesota.

In August, I will resume my academic duties. After that, I may only update as frequently as once a week, although I may update more often as the election approaches.

I will post during the next week about the methodology I've settled on. For now, let me say that I rely on head-to-head polls at the state level with the 2000 election results to fill in the blanks for states with scanty or non-existent polling data (none of which are close-fought).

Who am I? My name is Benjamin Schak. I'm originally from Minneapolis but have lived in Pennsylvania for several years, where I am now a graduate student in mathematics at the University of Pennsylvania. My fascination with cartograms began when I found the State of the World Atlas at the Franklin Library as a small child. My fascination with the Electoral College began when I read the relevant section of Philip Straffin's Game Theory in 9th grade. I spend most of my spare time watching movies, at the gym, or listening to Twins baseball.

2008 updates. This time the Democrat will only need 269 and the Republican will need 270. I'm an Obama supporter. I'm also going to make predictions each week both for "If the election were today" and for the actual election. I'm also going to revise the methodology write-up. I've improved the methodology in some way, understood it better, and have some ideas to make it clearer.

I've dropped out of grad school and moved to Connecticut. I'd also like to emphasize that this site is the result of my own personal work, studies, and opinions, and is in no way endorsed or approved by any past or present employer of mine.