Current Standings

Kerry has a 52% chance of winning the election, with 268.3 expected electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 42% chance of winning, with 268.2 expected electoral votes. These slight changes are due to new North Carolina and Florida polls from Rasmussen, but neither states has switched category.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.