Tracking presidential elections state-by-state with the power of statistics since 2004.
| Victory probability map | Obama lead over time |
|---|---|
 |
 |
I voted today! Dropped off my absentee ballot at the Norwalk Town Clerk first thing in the morning. Count one vote for Barack Obama, Jim Himes, and the rest of the Democratic slate.
Also, I liked voting by absentee ballot, because I could easily research the ballot questions on the Internet as I voted.
posted by Benjamin Schak at 9:29 PM
| Place | # of EV | Vote Est. | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | |||
| US-Popular | - | 53 | 100 |
| US-Electoral | [538] | 366 | 100 |
| No Swing States | |||
| New England | |||
| ME | 2 | 58 | 100 |
| ME1 | 1 | 59 | 100 |
| ME2 | 1 | 56 | 99 |
| NH | 4 | 54 | 100 |
| VT | 3 | 65 | 100 |
| MA | 12 | 60 | 100 |
| RI | 4 | 63 | 100 |
| CT | 7 | 58 | 100 |
| Mid Atlantic | |||
| NY | 31 | 61 | 100 |
| NJ | 15 | 57 | 100 |
| PA | 21 | 55 | 100 |
| DE | 3 | 59 | 100 |
| MD | 10 | 61 | 100 |
| DC | 3 | 91 | 100 |
| Eastern South | |||
| VA | 13 | 53 | 100 |
| WV | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| NC | 15 | 51 | 78 |
| SC | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| GA | 15 | 47 | 0 |
| FL | 27 | 51 | 95 |
| Western South | |||
| KY | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| TN | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| AL | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| MS | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| AR | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| LA | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| TX | 34 | 46 | 0 |
| Great Lakes | |||
| OH | 20 | 52 | 100 |
| MI | 17 | 56 | 100 |
| IN | 11 | 51 | 65 |
| IL | 21 | 62 | 100 |
| WI | 10 | 55 | 100 |
| MN | 10 | 56 | 100 |
| Plains | |||
| IA | 7 | 56 | 100 |
| MO | 11 | 51 | 76 |
| ND | 3 | 50 | 45 |
| SD | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| NE | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| NE1 | 1 | 46 | 4 |
| NE2 | 1 | 48 | 10 |
| NE3 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| KS | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| OK | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Mountain West | |||
| MT | 3 | 49 | 12 |
| ID | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| WY | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| CO | 9 | 54 | 100 |
| UT | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| NM | 5 | 55 | 100 |
| AZ | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| NV | 5 | 52 | 99 |
| AK | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Pacific | |||
| WA | 11 | 57 | 100 |
| OR | 7 | 57 | 100 |
| CA | 55 | 61 | 100 |
| HI | 4 | 69 | 100 |
| Obama electoral win (269+) | 100.0 |
| Obama electoral landslide (369+) | 53.9 |
| Obama electoral avalanche (469+) | 0.0 |
| Electoral tie (269-269) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral win (270+) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral landslide (369+) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral avalanche (469+) | 0.0 |
| Popular/electoral split | 0.0 |
| Obama popular, McCain electoral | 0.0 |
| McCain popular, Obama electoral | 0.0 |
| Likeliest result (378-160 Obama) | 20.5 |
| Mean EV | 365.7 |
| Median EV | 375 |
| Mode EV | 375 |
| 95% confidence range for EV | 311-382 |
| Mean PV | 53.3 |
| 95% confidence range for PV | 51.8-54.9 |
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home