Current Standings

Kerry has an 89.13% chance of winning and an expected 296.9 electoral votes. Kerry could win without any of his tossup states, while Bush would need at least 36 electoral votes from Kerry's side.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 146: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 107: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska (at large, 1st, and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 95: Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin.

Bush 56: Arizona, Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nebraska (2nd), South Carolina, Tennessee.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 15: Maine (at large and 1st), New Mexico, Oregon.

Bush 35: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, West Virginia.

Lean Strongly (70-80%)

Kerry 8: Iowa, Maine (2nd).

Bush 33: Ohio, Virginia.

Lean (60-70%)

Kerry 11: Missouri.

Bush 0.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 32: Florida, Nevada.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 0.

Total

Kerry 307.

Bush 231.