Current Standings; Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin

Kerry has an 87.7% chance of winning and an expected 295.7 electoral votes. Kerry could win with just Florida among his Tossup states. Bush has 50.06% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Florida (27) moved from Probable to Tossup Kerry because of aging data. Missouri (11) moved from Probable to Very Safe Bush, Ohio (20) from Very Safe to Close Tossup Bush, and Wisconsin (10) from Very Safe to Safe Kerry because of new data from the LA Times. I also got new data for Kentucky from Survey USA and for New Hampshire from American Research Group.