Victory probability mapObama lead over time

Friday, July 16, 2004

Awesome news!

Kerry has a 78% chance of winning, with 300.9 expected electoral votes; if the election were today, Kerry would have a 96% chance of winning, with 311.8 expected electoral votes. Kerry is up to 50.9% of the popular vote, both Florida and Ohio are now likely Kerry states, and Missouri is a Close Tossup after a run of good polling news.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:
for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win today

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:
for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.
for each electoral vote, the leading candidate's expected percentage

1 Comments:

Blogger amelia said...

that IS awesome news. rawk!

July 16, 2004 12:55 PM  

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