Yesterday's Standings

Kerry has a 65% chance for the of winning the election with an expected 287.8 electoral votes; however, if the election had been held yesterday, Kerry would have had a 74% chance of winning with an expected 291.3 electoral votes. He gets about 50.6% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would have won if the election had been yesterday:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 146: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 122: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 3rd), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 61: Delaware, Hawaii, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington.

Bush 56: Arizona, Georgia, Nebraska (1st and 2nd), North Carolina, North Dakota, Tennessee.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 39: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire.

Bush 9: Colorado.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 16: Maine (1st), New Hampshire, West Virginia.

Bush 13: Virginia.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 12: Maine (at-large), Wisconsin.

Bush 6: Arkansas.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 32: Florida, Nevada.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 21: Maine (2nd), Ohio.

Bush 11: Missouri.

Total

Kerry 289.

Bush 249.