Victory probability mapObama lead over time

Friday, September 26, 2008

Baseball and attrition

The Minnesota Twins started today 1/2 game ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central Division, with seven games left to go (3 Twins games and 4 Sox games). After both teams lost tonight, the Twins remained 1/2 game ahead. So which team had the more successful day? Clearly the Twins did, since the White Sox now have only five games instead of seven to make up the Twins' lead.

From listening to commentary, I get the sense that neither candidate clearly won tonight's debate. (I for one missed most of it, working late.) If this assessment is correct, tonight's debate clearly helps Obama because he currently holds a lead, and McCain/Palin now have one fewer major campaign event with which to make up Obama's significant lead. Like the Twins, Obama only needs to hold the race where it is right now; like the White Sox, McCain desperately needed to make up serious ground tonight.

Go Twins!

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