Race to 270: Meme

Victory probability map	Obama lead over time

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Place	# of EV	Vote Est.	Win Prob.
National
US-Popular	-	53	100
US-Electoral	[538]	366	100

No Swing States

New England
ME	2	58	100
ME1	1	59	100
ME2	1	56	99
NH	4	54	100
VT	3	65	100
MA	12	60	100
RI	4	63	100
CT	7	58	100
Mid Atlantic
NY	31	61	100
NJ	15	57	100
PA	21	55	100
DE	3	59	100
MD	10	61	100
DC	3	91	100
Eastern South
VA	13	53	100
WV	5	47	1
NC	15	51	78
SC	8	45	0
GA	15	47	0
FL	27	51	95
Western South
KY	8	44	0
TN	11	43	0
AL	9	41	0
MS	6	46	0
AR	6	45	0
LA	9	46	0
TX	34	46	0
Great Lakes
OH	20	52	100
MI	17	56	100
IN	11	51	65
IL	21	62	100
WI	10	55	100
MN	10	56	100
Plains
IA	7	56	100
MO	11	51	76
ND	3	50	45
SD	3	46	1
NE	2	43	0
NE1	1	46	4
NE2	1	48	10
NE3	1	35	0
KS	6	44	0
OK	7	37	0
Mountain West
MT	3	49	12
ID	4	38	0
WY	3	39	0
CO	9	54	100
UT	5	37	0
NM	5	55	100
AZ	10	47	0
NV	5	52	99
AK	3	44	0
Pacific
WA	11	57	100
OR	7	57	100
CA	55	61	100
HI	4	69	100

Obama electoral win (269+)	100.0
Obama electoral landslide (369+)	53.9
Obama electoral avalanche (469+)	0.0
Electoral tie (269-269)	0.0
McCain electoral win (270+)	0.0
McCain electoral landslide (369+)	0.0
McCain electoral avalanche (469+)	0.0

Popular/electoral split	0.0
Obama popular, McCain electoral	0.0
McCain popular, Obama electoral	0.0

Likeliest result (378-160 Obama)	20.5

Name: Benjamin Schak

Location: Norwalk, Connecticut, United States