Current Standings

Kerry has an 80% chance of winning the election with an expected 304.2 electoral votes; however, if the election had been held yesterday, Kerry would have had a 95% chance of winning with an expected 311.9 electoral votes. He gets about 51.3% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 132: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 68: Delaware, Hawaii, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington.

Bush 46: Arizona, Kentucky, Nebraska (1st and 2nd), North Carolina, Tennessee.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 24: Iowa, Maine (at-large and 1st), Minnesota, New Hampshire.

Bush 9: Colorado.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 43: Florida, Maine (2nd), West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Bush 13: Virginia.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 5: Nevada.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 17: Arkansas, Missouri.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 20: Ohio.

Bush 0.

Total

Kerry 316.

Bush 222.