26%

Kerry has an 26% chance of winning the election with an expected 253.4 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 14% chance of winning with an expected 249.9 electoral votes. He gets about 48.9% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 136: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 174: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (3rd), North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 87: Delaware, Hawaii, Maine (1st), Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Washington.

Bush 40: Arkansas, Maine (2nd), Missouri, Nebraska (at-large, 1st, and 2nd), Nevada, Virginia.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 7: Oregon.

Bush 51: Colorado, Florida, West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 10: Minnesota.

Bush 27: Iowa, Ohio.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 0.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 4: New Hampshire.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 2: Maine (at-large).

Total

Kerry 244.

Bush 294.