Current Standings; various states

Kerry has an 76% chance of winning the election with an expected 298.5 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, he would have a 93% chance of winning with an expected 305.9 electoral votes. He gets about 50.6% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Arkansas (6) has changed from Tossup Bush to Probable Bush, Nevada (5) from Probable Bush to Safe Bush, New Hampshire (4) from Safe Kerry to Very Probable Kerry, and Florida (27), Maine 2nd (1), West Virginia (5), and Wisconsin (10) from Very Probable Kerry to Probable Kerry.