Obama by 0.9%

Popular vote estimate:

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker green for Obama.)

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of electoral victory: 85%.
• Expected value of electoral votes: 283.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 248 to 309.
• Probability of electoral college tie: 3%.
• Probability of popular victory: 84%.
• Expected popular vote: Win by 0.9%.
• Swing states:
  • PA 88%.
  • OH 40%.
• Electoral vote distribution (electoral votes vs. probability):
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of electoral victory: 63%.
• Expected value of electoral votes: 278.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 185 to 355.
• Probability of electoral college tie: 2%.
• Probability of popular victory: 62%.
• Expected popular vote: Win by 0.9%.
• Swing states:
  • PA 92%.
  • OH 74%.
  • NH 66%.
  • CO 56%.
  • NV 56%.
  • MI 54%.
  • NM 50%.
  • MO 49%.
  • NJ 46%.
  • WI 43%.
• Electoral vote distribution (electoral votes vs. probability):
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):