16%

I haven't updated because I've been in Milwaukee without Internet. Updates may become rare as I start working 100-hour (or more) weeks until November. Lots of new polling has come out in the past week.

I doubled my "daily volatility parameter" to reflect that this campaign seems more volatile than usual.

In a nutshell, without maps: We have a 16% chance of winning (1% if the election were today) with an expected 233.6 electoral votes (228.0). We have 48.9% of the two-party vote. My prediction (which I didn't get a chance to post) on the 18th was a 13% chance of winning, so this is a slight uptick over that nadir. Speaking of nadirs, my estimate of Ralph Nader's effect is higher than it's ever been this year (something like a 1.4% effect on Kerry's share of the two-party vote).

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20%

Kerry has an 20% chance of winning the election with an expected 242.5 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 5% chance of winning with an expected 238.7 electoral votes. He gets about 49.3% of the two-party popular vote. This is the first truly post-Convention update

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 143: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island.

Bush 163: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (3rd), North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 33: Hawaii, New Jersey, Vermont, Washington.

Bush 45: Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska (at-large, 1st, and 2nd), North Dakota, Virginia.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 33: Delaware, Maine (1st), Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon.

Bush 57: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 2: Maine (at-large).

Bush 18: Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 10: Minnesota.

Bush 6: Maine (2nd), West Virginia.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 28: Iowa, Pennsylvania.

Total

Kerry 221.

Bush 317.

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38%

Kerry has an 38% chance of winning the election with an expected 258.5 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 27% chance of winning with an expected 255.7 electoral votes. He gets about 49.5% of the two-party popular vote. The bounce from the Republican convention has not completely filtered into these statistics, so everything here is too optimistic.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 144: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large, 1st, and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 33: Hawaii, Maine (1st), Michigan, Washington.

Bush 61: Arizona, Colorado, Kentucky, Nebraska (2nd), Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 12: Delaware, Maine (at-large), Oregon.

Bush 17: Arkansas, Missouri.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 5: New Mexico.

Bush 20: Ohio.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 31: Minnesota, Pennsylvania.

Bush 37: Florida, Wisconsin.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 7: Iowa.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 4: New Hampshire.

Bush 6: Maine (2nd), West Virginia.

Total

Kerry 253.

Bush 285.

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We're losing

In a rush; no more details until tonight.

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