Yesterday's Standings

Kerry has a 65% chance for the of winning the election with an expected 287.8 electoral votes; however, if the election had been held yesterday, Kerry would have had a 74% chance of winning with an expected 291.3 electoral votes. He gets about 50.6% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would have won if the election had been yesterday:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 146: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 122: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 3rd), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 61: Delaware, Hawaii, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington.

Bush 56: Arizona, Georgia, Nebraska (1st and 2nd), North Carolina, North Dakota, Tennessee.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 39: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire.

Bush 9: Colorado.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 16: Maine (1st), New Hampshire, West Virginia.

Bush 13: Virginia.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 12: Maine (at-large), Wisconsin.

Bush 6: Arkansas.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 32: Florida, Nevada.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 21: Maine (2nd), Ohio.

Bush 11: Missouri.

Total

Kerry 289.

Bush 249.

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Current Standings

Kerry has a 73% chance for the of winning the election with an expected 298.1 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 90% chance of winning with an expected 302.7 electoral votes. He gets 50.9% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 146: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 122: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 3rd), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 73: Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington.

Bush 45: Arizona, Georgia, Nebraska (1st and 2nd), North Carolina, North Dakota.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 31: Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire.

Bush 20: Colorado, Tennessee.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 16: Maine (1st), West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Bush 13: Virginia.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 2: Maine (at-large).

Bush 6: Arkansas.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 5: Nevada.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 48: Florida, Maine (2nd), Ohio.

Bush 11: Missouri.

Total

Kerry 316.

Bush 222.

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Current Standings (Abridged)

Kerry has an 78% chance for the of winning the election with an expected 304.0 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have an 96% chance of winning with an expected 311.1 electoral votes. He gets 51.0% of the two-party popular vote.

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Truth in Advertising; Current Standings

As if my partisanship were ever in doubt, I'm now working to raise money for the DNC. If you're one of my LiveJournal friends, you'll be hearing all about it.

Kerry has an 80% chance for the of winning the election with an expected 303.7 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have an 98% chance of winning with an expected 315.6 electoral votes. He gets 51.0% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 146: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 120: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (3rd), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 62: Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington.

Bush 47: Arizona, Georgia, Nebraska (at-large, 1st, 2nd), North Carolina, North Dakota.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 42: Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania.

Bush 20: Colorado, Tennessee.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 42: Maine (at-large and 1st), West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Bush 20: Colorado, Tennessee.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 47: Florida, Ohio.

Bush 0.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 1: Maine (2nd).

Bush 6: Arkansas.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 11: Missouri.

Total

Kerry 316.

Bush 222.

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Awesome news!

Kerry has a 78% chance of winning, with 300.9 expected electoral votes; if the election were today, Kerry would have a 96% chance of winning, with 311.8 expected electoral votes. Kerry is up to 50.9% of the popular vote, both Florida and Ohio are now likely Kerry states, and Missouri is a Close Tossup after a run of good polling news.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

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Current Standings; West Virginia, South Carolina

Kerry has a 52% chance of winning the election, with 272.8 expected electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 49% chance of winning, with 271.9 expected electoral votes. Kerry has an expected 50.1% of the popular vote.

South Carolina (8) changed from Very Safe Bush to Extremely Safe Bush, and West Virginia (5) changed from Close Tossup Bush to Close Tossup Kerry. That means that if each state voted for the current leader, there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

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Current Standings; Maine

Nothing terribly new. Kerry has a 51% chance of winning the election, with 272.2 expected electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have only a 48% chance of winning, with 271.1 expected electoral votes. Kerry has 50.04% of the popular vote. The Maine 1st District (1) changed from Very Probable Kerry to Safe Kerry, and the Maine 2nd District (1) changed from Tossup Kerry to Probable Kerry.

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Current Standings; Maine, Virginia

Kerry has a 51% chance of winning the election, with 271.7 expected electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 47% chance of winning, with 270.6 expected electoral votes. Each candidate has about 50.0% of the popular vote.

Virginia (13) moved from Probable Bush to Very Probable Bush; Maine at-large (2) and 1st (1) moved from Safe Kerry to Very Probably Kerry; and Maine 2nd (1) moved from Probable Kerry to Tossup Kerry. I'm glad there are starting to be more Virginia polls, so that the situation there can come into better focus.

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Current Standings; Electoral College gives Bush advantage

Kerry has a 53% chance of winning the election, with 275.0 expected electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 56% chance of winning, with 275.2 expected electoral votes. Kerry gets an expected 50.1% of the popular vote. This swing comes from a whole bunch of new swing-state polls released today, and also from two small technical changes: I increased the assumed correlation between opinion shifts in different states after I studied the results of some simulations and found quite a few results that violated common sense (for example, Kerry winning Virginia but not West Virginia, or Kerry winning Arkansas but losing the election, or Kerry winning the popular vote my several percent but losing the election); I also increased the assumed daily variance for each state's opinion, so that the variance in the national popular vote would be the desired 0.000001. These new parameters seem to make sense in simulation.

Bush seems to have a half-percent advantage in the Electoral College; this advantage does depends weakly if at all on today's changes in parameters. By this I mean that the Bush and Kerry would have equal chances of winning if Kerry got 50.5% of the two-party popular vote. If the popular vote were 50.0%, Bush would have about an 80% chance of winning. Bush is 9.5 times more likely than Kerry to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote; indeed, if Bush wins the Electoral College, there is a 36% chance that he will do so without winning the popular vote. Part of the reason for this advantage is that Kerry "wastes" so many popular votes, particularly in California and New York. Another reason is that the small states, which generally support Bush, have more electoral votes per capita than the large states. Another reason is that former secessionist states, all of which support Bush, tend to have lower voter turnout. Another reason is the fairly high likelihood (around 1.2%) of a tie in the Electoral College, which I count as a Bush win. All these things make up for Bush's "wasted" votes in the small Western states.

Because of the increased correlation between the states, even small swing states can serve as good indicators of the national winner; thus, the top swing states are now West Virginia, Virginia (more polls needed, pollsters!), and Wisconsin, followed by Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Missouria, Arkansas, Minnesota, and Iowa. Your vote matters the most in West Virginia, Arkansas, and Nevada, followed by New Hampshire, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, Arizona, Colorado, Ohio, and North Carolina.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 146: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 125: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (3rd), Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 35: Hawaii, New Jersey, New Mexico, Washington.

Bush 28: Georgia, Nebraska (at-large, 1st, 2nd), North Dakota, South Carolina.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 30: Delaware, Iowa, Maine (at-large, 1st), Minnesota, Oregon.

Bush 34: Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 42: Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania.

Bush 32: Florida, Nevada.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 1: Maine (2nd).

Bush 30: Arkansas, Missouri, Virginia.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 10: Wisconsin.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 5: West Virginia.

Total

Kerry 264.

Bush 274.

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Current Standings; Pennsylvania

Kerry has a 48% chance of winning the election, with 268.4 expected electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 42% chance of winning, with 268.1 expected electoral votes. Pennsylvania has moved from Safe Kerry to Very Probable Kerry.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

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Current Standings

Kerry has a 52% chance of winning the election, with 268.3 expected electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 42% chance of winning, with 268.2 expected electoral votes. These slight changes are due to new North Carolina (a poll without mention of Edwards) and Florida polls from Rasmussen, but neither states has switched category.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

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Current Standings

Kerry has a 52% chance of winning the election, with 268.3 expected electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 42% chance of winning, with 268.2 expected electoral votes. These slight changes are due to new North Carolina and Florida polls from Rasmussen, but neither states has switched category.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

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Where Does Your Vote Count?

Yesterday I tackled the question "Given current data, which states are likely to affect the election the most?" Now I ask the question "In which state does a single vote matter the most?"

I've always heard that the likelihood of a single voter swinging a state election is inversely proportional to the square root of the state's population. I understand quite well the underlying mathematical assumptions behind this idea. However, the real story is somewhat more complicated, and the right formula involves not the square root of the population, but the population itself. I'll right about this some other time. For now though, given the current data, the list of states by ability of a single voter to influence the election is as follows (don't worry too much about the units associated with these numbers, and don't put too much stock in the ranking towards the bottom of the list):

West Virginia, 30.8;
Arkansas, 21;
Nevada, 16;
Missouri, 11;
New Hampshire, 10;
Ohio, 9.9;
Wisconsin, 8.5;
Florida, 5.5;
Virginia, 4.7;
New Mexico, 4.5;
Arizona, 4.4;
Colorado, 3.3;
Michigan, 3.2;
Oregon, 2.3;
Pennsylvania, 1.8;
Iowa, 1.4;
North Carolina, 1.4;
Maine (2nd), 1.4;
Nebraska (2nd), 0.95;
Minnesota, 0.72;
others, <0.5.

Conclusion: If you don't mind moving to West Virginia or Arkansas, go do that now.

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Current Standings; Virginia

Kerry has a 50% chance of winning the election, with 267.1 expected electoral votes; if, however, the election were held today, Kerry would have a 41% chance of winning, with 267.6 expected electoral votes. Virginia (13) has changed from Safe Bush to Very Probable Bush.

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Swingers

There are no new polls, but after some final tweaks, Kerry now has a 49% chance of winning the election, with 266.77 expected electoral votes.

Given all the talk out there about so-called swing states, I ask, "What is a swing state, and which states are swing states?" My answer is that a state is a swing state if, when I run my election simulations, there is a high correlation between Kerry (or Bush) winning the state and Kerry (or Bush) winning the election. The most swingy of the swing state is Ohio, which has a correlation of about 0.51. The states have correlations with the national results of:

Ohio, 0.51;
Michigan, 0.37;
Pennsylvania, 0.36;
Florida and Wisconsin, 0.35;
Missouri, 0.32;
West Virginia, 0.28;
Arkansas and Virginia, 0.25;
New Hamphsire, 0.20;
Oregon, Iowa, and Minnesota, 0.19;
New Mexico, 0.17;
Nevada, 0.14;
New Jersey, 0.12;
Arizona, Washington, and Colorado, 0.11;
North Carolina, 0.10;
Delaware, 0.06;
California, 0.05;
Georgia and South Carolina, 0.04;
Maine (2nd and 1st), 0.02;
Vermont, Hawaii, Maryland, Tennessee, Nebraska (2nd and at-large), Louisiana, and North Dakota, 0.01;
everything else, 0.00.

If there were 51 states, each with one electoral vote, independent from one another, and each with a 50-50 chance of going to Kerry or Bush, then each state would have a correlation of 15801325804719/140737488355328 = 0.1122751727. So that's what I use as a dividing line between swing and not-swing. Under this criterion, the swing states are Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Missouri, West Virginia, Arkansas, Virginia, New Hampshire, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, New Jersey, Arizona, and Washington. Except, perhaps, for the inclusion of Virginia (need more polls!) and New Jersey, I think most people would consider these to be swing.

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Methodology

I've put up a brief PDF file about how I make my predictions here.

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Changes; Current Standings

I made some more changes (last time, I promise!) to try to deal with the correlation between opinion changes in different states and also for the Nader effect, which currently stands at 0.78%+-0.45% on the two-party vote.

Anyhow, were the election held today, Kerry would have a 41% chance of winning, with 267.5 expected electoral votes. Kerry has a 50% chance of winning on Election Day, with 266.9 expected electoral votes. Bush still has 49.6% of the popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

List showing the likelihood of each state's current leader winning that state on Election Day:

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 150: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 153: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (all), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 46: Delaware, Iowa, Minnesota, New Jersey, Washington.

Bush 34: Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 36: Maine (at-large and 1st), New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania.

Bush 45: Florida, Nevada, Virginia.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 21: Michigan, New Hampshire.

Bush 17: Arkansas, Missouri.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 1: Maine (2nd).

Bush 20: Ohio.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 10: Wisconsin.

Bush 5: West Virginia.

Total

Kerry 264.

Bush 274.

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