54%; Arkansas, Missouri, Wisconsin

Kerry has an 54% chance of winning the election with an expected 275.2 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 56% chance of winning with an expected 274.8 electoral votes. He gets about 50.02% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 143: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 48: Delaware, Hawaii, Maine (1st), Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington.

Bush 35: Arizona, Kentucky, Nebraska (1st and 2nd), North Carolina.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 23: Maine (at-large), Pennsylvania.

Bush 33: Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 10: Minnesota.

Bush 31: Missouri, Ohio.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 11: Iowa, New Hampshire.

Bush 0.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 5: West Virginia.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 28: Florida, Maine (2nd).

Bush 10: Wisconsin.

Total

Kerry 286.

Bush 252.

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Bush surges

Bush has come on strong: He has more than erased Kerry's convention bounce in the popular vote, and the Republican convention hasn't even happened yet. The DNC needs money to combat the past month's strident attacks against John Kerry, and you should contribute now by sending a check to DNC/Grassroots, Attn: Ben, 1211 Chestnut St., Ste. 608, Phila., PA, 19107.

Kerry has an 56% chance of winning the election with an expected 276.0 electoral votes; however, if the election had been held yesterday, Kerry would have had a 58% chance of winning with an expected 276.3 electoral votes. He gets about 50.1% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 143: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 48: Delaware, Hawaii, Maine (1st), Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington.

Bush 35: Arizona, Kentucky, Nebraska (1st and 2nd), North Carolina.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 23: Maine (at-large), Pennsylvania.

Bush 27: Colorado, Nevada, Virginia.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 10: Minnesota.

Bush 26: Arkansas, Ohio.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 11: Iowa, New Hampshire.

Bush 11: Missouri.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 5: West Virginia.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 28: Florida, Maine (2nd), Wisconsin.

Bush 0.

Total

Kerry 296.

Bush 242.

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Current Standings; Arkansas again

Kerry has an 72% chance of winning the election with an expected 294.4 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, he would have an 88% chance of winning with an expected 300.1 electoral votes. He gets about 50.6% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Arkansas (6) has changed back from Probable Bush to Tossup Bush.

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Current Standings; various states

Kerry has an 76% chance of winning the election with an expected 298.5 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, he would have a 93% chance of winning with an expected 305.9 electoral votes. He gets about 50.6% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Arkansas (6) has changed from Tossup Bush to Probable Bush, Nevada (5) from Probable Bush to Safe Bush, New Hampshire (4) from Safe Kerry to Very Probable Kerry, and Florida (27), Maine 2nd (1), West Virginia (5), and Wisconsin (10) from Very Probable Kerry to Probable Kerry.

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Current Standings

Kerry has an 80% chance of winning the election with an expected 304.2 electoral votes; however, if the election had been held yesterday, Kerry would have had a 95% chance of winning with an expected 311.9 electoral votes. He gets about 51.3% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 132: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 68: Delaware, Hawaii, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington.

Bush 46: Arizona, Kentucky, Nebraska (1st and 2nd), North Carolina, Tennessee.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 24: Iowa, Maine (at-large and 1st), Minnesota, New Hampshire.

Bush 9: Colorado.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 43: Florida, Maine (2nd), West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Bush 13: Virginia.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 5: Nevada.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 17: Arkansas, Missouri.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 20: Ohio.

Bush 0.

Total

Kerry 316.

Bush 222.

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Methodology Changes; Current Standings

I've thrown out pre-March polls. Mostly this was because my Maple program wasn't handling them the right way anyhow, but also because the Bush/Kerry campaign didn't really start until March. This seems to have only a small effect on the results. Also, some weeks ago, I stopped using Zogby's online polls. I also made a slight correction to how I deal with Maine and Nebraska.

Kerry has an 84% chance for the of winning the election with an expected 312.3 electoral votes; however, if the election had been held yesterday, Kerry would have had a 98% chance of winning with an expected 321.7 electoral votes. He gets about 51.3% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 132: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 87: Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine (at-large), Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington.

Bush 46: Arizona, Kentucky, Nebraska (1st and 2nd), North Carolina, Tennessee.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 5: Maine (1st), New Hampshire.

Bush 9: Colorado.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 43: Florida, Maine (2nd), West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Bush 0.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 20: Ohio.

Bush 18: Nevada, Virginia.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 6: Arkansas.

Bush 11: Missouri.

Total

Kerry 322.

Bush 216.

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Current Standings

Kerry has a 76% chance for the of winning the election with an expected 301.6 electoral votes; however, if the election had been held yesterday, Kerry would have had a 92% chance of winning with an expected 306.5 electoral votes. He gets about 51.0% of the two-party popular vote.

I corrected a small technical error in the correlation I assume between public opinion on successive days. The current and election-day expected electoral vote statistics should be closer together, and I may be predicting a slightly higher probability for the leader to win the election.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would have won if the election had been yesterday:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 138: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large, 1st, and 3rd), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 72: Delaware, Hawaii, Michigan, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington.

Bush 40: Arizona, Nebraska (2nd), North Carolina, North Dakota, Tennessee.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 17: Iowa, Minnesota.

Bush 9: Colorado.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 16: Maine (at-large and 1st), West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Bush 0.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 29: Missouri, Nevada, Virginia.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 47: Florida, Ohio.

Bush 6: Arkansas.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 1: Maine (2nd).

Bush 0.

Total

Kerry 316.

Bush 222.

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Question: Can large groups of speculators predict elections better than I can?

Short answer: Don't economists wish.

Long answer: No. A cursory examination of the current lines at tradesports.com reveals that speculators as a group currently believe that a) Bush has a 52.3-53.0% chance of winning the election (bet PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004) but b) Kerry has a 64.2-67.2% chance of winning Florida or Ohio or both (bet BUSH.OH&FL). This state of affairs is an enormous, ludicrous arbitrage, and I wish I had enough money to take complete advantage of it. (As it is, I fully intend to make a hundred dollars or two.) The reason this is ludicrous is that if Kerry wins either Florida or Ohio, he will win the election, period; no really, I defy anyone to come up with a reasonable winning coalition for Bush that fails to include both Florida and Ohio. The reason it creates an arbitrage (a risk-free investment) is that by investing in equal numbers of shares of PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 (sell) and BUSH.OH&FL (buy) one can virtually guarantee a 20% return on investment and even have a 5% chance (if Kerry somehow wins with neither Ohio nor Florida) of a 40% return. By my analysis, there is a trivial risk (under 3%) of total loss (in the unlikely to impossible situation of Bush winning while failing to hold both Florida and Ohio). What I'm saying is that everybody knows that PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 and BUSH.OH&FL are essentially the same bet (and my numbers bear that common knowledge out), and the fact that they are selling at drastically different prices is a red flag that people are being supremely stupid; and when people are supremely stupid in a free market, there's nearly unlimited money to be made risk-free for anyone with capital.

I strongly suspect that PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 and BUSH.SOUTH (predicated on Bush capturing the entire Confederacy) also produces an arbitrage, although I haven't run the simulations to tell just how risk-free it is (the only risk is that Bush will lose a Confederate state but somehow still win the election). Also, BUSH.ARIZONA is underpriced, BUSH.NEVADA is underpriced, BUSH.NEWHAMPSHIRE is overpriced, BUSH.NEWMEXICO is overpriced, BUSH.NORTHCAROLINA is underpriced, BUSH.OREGON is overpriced, BUSH.PENNSYLVANIA is overpriced, BUSH.TENNESSEE is underpriced, BUSH.WASHINGTON is overpriced, and BUSH.ELECTORAL+300 (predicated on Bush getting 300 electoral votes) is overpriced, all by at least $15. Of these, OR, PA, and WA are the worst-priced.

I ran my standard simulations today with some new polls and some new information about where Nader is on the ballot. I don't remember the results, but Kerry has a 61 or 62% chance of winning the election, with expected electoral votes in the 280s and an expected share of the two-party popular vote around 50.4%.

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